Jumat, 29 Maret 2013

Stage Set for Surge to $100/BTC

Back when I proposed Bitcoin might hit $100 USD in 2013, I definitely did not expect it could happen within six weeks. 

The media coverage and overall interest in Bitcoin has surged to remarkable levels. BBC, CBC, FOX, Bloomberg, Forbes, CNN, you name it, they've all run Bitcoin stories in the past two weeks.

Tradehill is back, ASICs are flashed up around the world.

There have been 243,000 downloads of the Bitcoin client in the last month.

On March 28th, 4824 users were on the Bitcointalk forums simultaneously, beating the June 19th, 2011 record by over 1000 users.

Bitcoin is now seen as a real alternative to fiat, thanks to the fiasco that is Cyprus.

There's $11 million in open bids on Mt.Gox, and only $2.5 million in asks. The wait list for account verification on Mt.Gox is over 4000 users.

Weekends are notoriously bearish for Bitcoin, but huge bid walls, amounting to over 10,000 BTC above $90 are now in place. 

Is this a bubble, or the next step in a global financial revolution? You be the judge, but if I were you I wouldn't get in the way of this freight train.

Selasa, 19 Maret 2013

Lifeboat Foundation to Match First 500 BTC in Donations

The following press release can be seen in HTML format at http://lifeboat.com/ex/press.releases.bitcoins

LIFEBOAT FOUNDATION ENTERS 21ST CENTURY

Brian Cartmell makes large bitcoin pledge enabling the Lifeboat Foundation to start the process of changing its source of funding from 20th century money to 21st century money.

Story

March 20, 2013 -- While the Lifeboat Foundation was founded in the 21st century, until recently it was mainly funded using 20th century money, basically various types of monies backed by governments. Thanks to the encouragement of some of our larger donors we are now working to have the majority of our funding come from 21st century money -- money backed not by governments but by algorithms. The 21st century money Lifeboat is currently focused on is bitcoins.

Our Brian Cartmell will match the next 500 bitcoins donated. Learn about our growing bitcoin endowment fund (worth almost $40,000) at https://lifeboat.com/ex/bitcoins.

The attempted EU-IMF grab of bank accounts that held government-backed money was the key event that caused the Lifeboat Foundation to feel that the time for 21st century money was here.

About Lifeboat Foundation

The Lifeboat Foundation is a nonprofit nongovernmental organization dedicated to encouraging scientific advancements while helping humanity survive existential risks and possible misuse of increasingly powerful technologies, including genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and robotics/AI, as we move towards the Singularity.

Contacts:

Lifeboat Foundation News office
1638 Esmeralda Avenue
Minden, NV 89423, USA
+1 775-329-0180
press@lifeboat.com

Minggu, 17 Maret 2013

The $8 Million Chart We Should All Be Watching

Fun fact: did you know that it was only just over a month and a half ago that a new all-time high record was set for the value of bids on MtGox's order book? That record was $3 million USD.

Well, it's over $8 million now.

Chart courtesy of BitcoinX.com
As can be deduced from these three graphs, there is a strong correlation between the sum value of bids in the order book and the exchange rate. If we combine this with reports that there are still thousands of people waiting just to get their MtGox accounts verified, it's become apparent that the case for the current exchange rate being a bubble is getting ever so harder to make.

Perhaps instead of a continuing consolidation period, or even a temporary fall, we are actually poised for an even bigger rise? I believe that would be the correct assessment, given these facts.

Kamis, 14 Maret 2013

I Just Sent Barack Obama 0.2 Bitcoins

The innovation continues, and this idea is pretty cool. Those of you who are members of the Bitcoin sub-reddit are likely quite familiar with the Bitcointip bot that lets you tip commenters with Bitcoins. The program monitors comments in a limited number of sub-reddits and processes specific commands from those wishing to leave a Bitcoin tip. It's become a really cool way of introducing others to Bitcoin because they do not initially need Bitcoin accounts to receive tips.

Now the idea has been taken to the next level. 'Bitcoin Tipper' performs a similar function to the Reddit bot but applies it to Twitter. A user can create a Bitcoin Tipper account simply by following @bitcointipper and tweeting "@bitcointipper signup." The user will then receive a Bitcoin address which they can load with funds. Once you have money in your account, you can send Bitcoins to anyone with a Twitter account.

With this awesome new service, Twitter has suddenly become a global banking system with 540 million accounts. The best part about this is the ability to tip famous people with Bitcoins; I bet that will make things interesting quickly. To inaugurate this service (no pun intended), my first tip will be going to Barack Obama.



Senin, 11 Maret 2013

Breaking: The Blockchain has Forked

Developers are currently holding an emergency discussion in #bitcoin-dev to determine a way forward.

The gist of the problem is that 0.7 and 0.8 clients have diverged with each building a different blockchain because 0.7 clients did not accept 0.8 blocks from a certain point.

The problem was likely caused by large blocks being rejected by miners running the 0.7 client.

At this point mining pools, merchants, and exchanges are considering taking themselves offline until a way forward is agreed upon. As a result, you may see that your transactions are slow to confirm, though that might be a moot point if the blockchain is rolled back.

This is a dark day for Bitcoin. Implications for the exchange rate will likely be huge... should Bitcoins be sold off prior to the exchanges going offline.

Update: Mt.Gox has temporarily suspended all deposits.

Update 2: The exchange rate has dropped 10% in the last 10 minutes, now $44/Bitcoin.

Update 3: Gavin Andresen has sent out an emergency alert: "URGENT: chain fork, stop mining on version 0.8"

Update 4: It appears as though the solution is going to be to encourage miners to revert to mining on version 0.7 until THAT blockchain is longer than the 0.8 chain, which would then make it the master blockchain.

Update 5: As the miners have taken their machines offline, the rate of block confirmation has dropped substantially. Only one block has been confirmed in the last hour, and even then, the transaction volume on that block was only 25 Bitcoins. It appears that the mining pools are taking coordinated action to address the issue in a timely manner, as they switch over to Bitcoin v0.7.

0143 GMT: Update 6: The v0.7 blockchain is currently 225436 blocks in length, while the v0.8 blockchain is 225446 blocks in length. Until 0.7 is longer than 0.8, the problem will persist.

0148 GMT: Update 7: This was the original announcement of the problem.

0151 GMT: Update 8: From Pieter Wuille, a great explanation of the cause of the fork:

0.7 and older nodes use BDB for storing the blockchain databases. It seems this database has a limit on the size of the modification it can make atomically to the database. With the larger blocks of the past days, it seems to have triggered the limit. The result is that 0.7 (by default, it can be tweaked manually) will not accept "too large" blocks (we don't yet know what exactly causes it, but it is very likely caused by many transactions in the block). Specifically, block 
000000000000015c50b165fcdd33556f8b44800c5298943ac70b112df480c023 (height=225430) with >1700 transactions.

However. 0.8 (which uses a different database system) has no such limit, and happily accepts the block. As the majority of the hash power was on 0.8, the longest chain ended up using this block, which is not accepted by older nodes.

The solution is to (for now) go back to the old chain, which has block 00000000000001c108384350f74090433e7fcf79a606b8e797f065b130575932 at height 225430.

0219 GMT: Update 9: The exchange rate is really taking a hit now, down to $41.40 USD, or a 20% drop.

At this point, it's become an over-reaction. As soon as the v0.7-compatible blockchain is longer than the v0.8 blockchain, everything will be back to normal. This has actually been an excellent demonstration of how a decentralized development team and community can come together to resolve a major issue quickly, with minimal impact to the system.

0230 GMT: Update 10: Unfortunately it isn't simply a matter of the miners mining 10 blocks to catch up the 0.8 chain. There is still is considerable amount of hashing power working on the now defunct 0.8 chain and mining pool operators are just beginning the process of switching over to 0.7 (see the thread here). This will be a battle that will last well into the night, and possibly into tomorrow, depending on how quickly the mining power can be switched over. If it wasn't for the existence of pools, this would be like herding mosquitoes, let alone cats.

0249 GMT: Update 11: An important comment on how the blockchain works:

"For any block on the chain, there is only one path to the genesis block. Coming from the genesis block, however, there can be forks. One-block forks are created from time to time when two blocks are created just a few seconds apart. When that happens, generating nodes build onto whichever one of the blocks they received first. Whichever block ends up being included in the next block becomes part of the main chain because that chain is longer. More serious forks have occurred after fixing bugs that required backward-incompatible changes. Blocks in shorter chains (or invalid chains) are called "orphan blocks", and while they are stored, they are not used for anything. When a block becomes an orphan block, all of its valid transactions are re-added to the pool of queued transactions and will be included in another block. "

0300 GMT: Update 12: You can watch the ongoing battle, here, at blockchain.info. The orphaned blocks are part of the 0.7 chain which is trying to catch up to the longer, 0.8 main chain.

0313 GMT: Update 13: As transactions are propagated through the network, they're being added to both forks of the blockchain. One thing to realize, however, is that the block rewards that miners are receiving on the current main chain will be invalid, as the 0.7 chain, which will soon take over, will not recognize those coins.

The exchange rate has already made a miraculous recovery, back to 44.00 USD/Bitcoin.

0321 GMT: Update 14: Please read this update from Gavin Andresen, Bitcoin's lead developer.

0325 GMT: Update 15: Another explanation of what happened tonight:

Senin, 04 Maret 2013

Kim Dotcom Looking to Create "Megacard," A Bitcoin-Based Credit Card?


Looks like Mr .Com has more than a passing interest in Bitcoin after all!

Minggu, 03 Maret 2013

Bitcoin Search Trend Hits 19-Month High

The recent BTCUSD exchange rate increase has left many wondering how much of it is just speculation based on all the recent good news in the Bitcoin economy (reddit, Mega adoption, Coinbase growth, Bitcoin gambling growth, new Bitcoin stores and services launched, first ASICs delivered, etc..) and how much of it is actually based on sound new adoption.

Here's one decent attempt to make sense of various stats that do in fact support the premise that this is sound growth based on new adoption.

But another very good indicator is the google search trend for the term "Bitcoin" which just hit a new 19-month high:
Mt.Gox BTCUSD rate for the same period:


While it is true that an increased search volume does not necessarily translate into an increased user base it does however indicate a lot more interest in researching Bitcoin which up until now correlated quite well with the exchange rate, so it certainly is a data point to consider in your trading strategy.

 
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