Selasa, 26 Februari 2013

The Bitcoin Ladder

The Bitcoin Ladder ranks Bitcoin-accepting websites by the amount of traffic they receive.

RungSiteAlexa Global Ranking
1Wordpress21
2Reddit122
3Internet Archive229
4OkCupid684
54chan906
6Namecheap915
7Mega.co.nz1,310
8Lumfile3,354
9Torrent Leech5,233
10Filecloud.io5,593

18 Apr 2013: OkCupid added, LewRockwell removed.

1 Mar 2013: Mega.co.nz added, OKPAY removed.

26 Feb 2013: Namecheap added, Slysoft removed.

14 Feb 2013: Reddit added, Los Angeles Independent Media Center removed.

19 Jan 2013: OKPAY added, DailyPaul removed.

16 Jan 2013: DailyPaul added, WrapBootstrap removed.

7 Jan 2013: WrapBootstrap added, Tor Project removed.

2 Jan 2013: Slysoft.com added, Erowid removed. 4chan.org added, What.CD removed.

Minggu, 24 Februari 2013

ZigGap Launches IPO on BitFunder, Sells 10,000,000 Shares in 60 Minutes

With no prior announcement, ZigGap launched their IPO on BitFunder today, catching the Bitcoin investing community by surprise. Traders were quick to react, however, as the initial sale of 10,000,000 shares was rapidly bought up, putting 500 BTC in the hands of ZigGap's owners.

In the last few weeks you may have noticed their advertisement on the right-hand side of this blog, though it wasn't until a few days ago that the site launched in earnest with a new design.

Based out of Florida, ZigGap has their sites set on some of the market share currently being enjoyed by BitInstant and Coinbase, both of which have been doing brisk business over the last few months as copious amounts of new capital has been pouring into the Bitcoin economy. Coinbase, alone, recently reported over $1,000,000 in volume in less than a month.

In a post on the Bitcointalk.org Securities sub-forum, ZigGap reported, in only a couple of weeks of private beta testing, that they have processed $22,824.56 in orders and profited $907.52.

Based on the first 10,000,000 shares (20% of the total outstanding), the company is valued at a modest $75,000.00. ZigGap intends to use the revenue from the IPO to cover the costs of adding additional payment processing options to their service. Additional shares will be offered on BitFunder in the coming days and weeks.

Disclosure: the author is long ZigGap.

SatoshiDice Player Bets 0.02 BTC, Wins 1280 BTC

For the first time, someone bet on "less than 1" at SatoshiDice and won, turning 0.02 BTC ($0.60) into 1280 BTC ($38,000).

The odds of winning were 0.0015% or 66666:1 (haha, very funny guys).

You can see the transaction here.

Shameless plug: if you're looking for a place to test your luck with Bitcoins, be sure to visit betwithbtc.com.

Kamis, 21 Februari 2013

How is Ripple NOT a Bitcoin Killer?

Let's talk about the elephant in the room. 

I get the impression that those behind Ripple are trying to be polite when they say that Ripple won't kill Bitcoin. If a system lets you send any currency of your choosing to anyone else for a very tiny fee, or even convert it to another currency on a peer-to-peer exchange, how could that possibly not disrupt Bitcoin?

Most of Ripple's critics are focusing on the "currency" used by Ripple, called "Ripples," (XRP) that protects the network from spam. The point of Ripples is to ensure that transactions have a cost, albeit a very tiny one. If that was not the case, the network would be overwhelmed by millions of spam transactions.

From the wiki: 
The ripple founders created the initial ripple ledger with 100 billion XRP. The founders gifted a for profit company called Opencoin 80 billion XRP. Opencoin intends to give away over 50 billion XRP. The remainder will be used to fund Opencoin operations, which include contributing code to the open source network and promoting the network.
Even if Opencoin should close, the ripple network will continue. Because the ripple is a P2P network, it is not operated by Opencoin but by the combined efforts of all the computers running the ripple server software. The ripple network can not be shut down without shutting down the entire Internet.
As of yesterday, OpenCoin has been giving away 50,000 XRP to everyone who replies to this thread, just as was promised in the wiki. They're trying to grease the wheels of Ripple to get people to use the system. There are 300+ replies in that thread; that's 15,000,000 XRP and counting. You can actually connect to the freenode network on IRC, go to the #ripple-watch channel and watch the distribution live.

Regarding Ripple vs. Bitcoin in terms of anonymity, Ripple does a good job, probably good enough for most purposes. It's possible that Bitcoin could hang on as the currency-of-choice for those wishing to operate in the black market, but in that scenario the exchanges would run the risk of becoming targeted by governments, and if they were to be shut down, Bitcoin would be crippled.

Remember, Ripple isn't about the XRPs; it's about providing a service that is supposedly the reason why we're all Bitcoin fans in the first place: it facilitates financial transactions outside of traditional banking networks. Sure, XRPs will probably increase in value as Ripple increases in popularity, and yes there might be an opportunity there, but that is a secondary consequence, and primarily benefits the founders. It's a benefit that they will well deserve, should the system work as advertised.

Minggu, 17 Februari 2013

The Latest on Bitcoin Margin Trading

The recent volatility of the BTC/USD exchange rate has been a potentially profitable day-trading opportunity for savvy investors. But to really take advantage of the past, current and likely coming fluctuations, traders would probably like to leverage their positions and also employ short positions, both something Bitcoin exchanges typically do not offer.

So are there options available to those seeking a profit in this market that would allow them to employ these strategies? Well as it turns out, there are and soon there will be one more.

Coinsetter.com, a highly promising margin trading platform judging by the initial introduction alone, is about to enter beta testing. In the announcement thread, Jaron Lukasiewicz, CEO and co-founder, introduced himself as a former investment banker with previous experience at some of the more prominent American financial institutions. With an air of professionalism, he answered some very tough initial questions posed by the bitcointalk community. Among other things, he revealed that his company will enter beta testing towards the end of February or by the beginning of March, and that he will put up at least $50,000 of his own money towards the platform's initial margin reserves. He said he is also looking for seed capital and intends to fully comply with US financial regulations.

But traders don't have to wait, there already is another option available; BitFinex (based in Hong Kong). Although not without problems, the platform is experiencing growing success that is starting to look quite respectable, and there are even plans to incorporate in Hong-Kong, where they intend to obtain a financial licence from the SFC (Securities and Futures Commission of Hong-Kong).


One other option is ICBIT.se, recently featured by Bitcoin Magazine, a site that seems to have attracted a small group of recurring users.

Of course when talking about margin trading, let's not forget that more than nine months have passed since the owner of Bitcoinca, the infamous Bitcoin margin trading platform, made a thread on bitcointalk.org announcing they were shutting down operations. The culprit was an unauthorized transaction allegedly perpetrated by a hacker that emptied their hot wallet. It's been more than seven months since Amir Taaki, aka genjix, working for the Bitcoin Consultancy group which took over the Bitcoinca fiasco in an attempt to repay their customers with what was left of their deposits, announced that the remaining funds held on Mt.Gox had also been stolen. As was later discovered, the cause was an overlooked security issue within the source code that too was stolen during the hack and even leaked later on.

This tragedy is still unresolved and is currently in the hands of a senior insolvency administrator from New Zealand, Taslim Bhamji, who is trying to carry out the liquidation of Bitcoinca LP, at least whatever is left of it.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin community has witnessed a few more attempts to launch a new margin trading platform. Kronos.io was supposed to be one but failed miserably before even getting out of beta; the result of a hack and theft that left them mortally wounded. Bitdaytrade.com was another one which likewise crashed and burned due to poor design leaving the site vulnerable to hacks that occurred as soon as it entered beta, forcing the site to be shut down.

These stories should be considered a huge lesson about trusting anyone to handle your bitcoins and just how costly trusting the wrong person or business can be. So although the current market conditions seem highly enticing, before investing a single bitcoin, be sure to weigh the risks of trusting the wrong company and act accordingly.

Sabtu, 16 Februari 2013

Kim Dotcom Endorses Bitcoin


Bitcoin: $100 by the End of 2013?

Wow, what a week. Reddit took the leap and is now accepting Bitcoin payments, the market took a 20% dip and bounced back like it never happened, and the general buzz around Bitcoin is nothing like the community has ever seen before.

The Bitcoin market cap is just moments away from hitting $300,000,000, and the chart is starting to make the June 2011 bubble look like a speed bump:

Bitcoin Market Cap (Chart courtesy of blockchain.info)

Looking at Bitcoin mining, the first ASICs from Avalon and ASICMiner are now online, and at some point next week Butterfly Labs will most likely be shipping their long-awaited product to the lucky miners who threw down their money last summer.

The number of Bitcoin projects on the go is impossible to measure, as most developers are rather secretive, but I can quote one anonymous source as saying, "if I told you how many major projects I was aware of, your mind would explode." I'm not sure if that means four to six, or ten to twenty, but there are definitely a lot of enthusiastic developers mashing away at keyboards as we speak.

So, with that in mind, let's take a look at the future, shall we?

The Next Six Months (Original chart courtesy of bitcoinx.com)
What I've done here is added six months onto this chart (click for full-size), showing where I believe the exchange rate and mining difficulty will take us over the next half-year. Predicting mining difficulty at this scale was rather easy; it's going to go up, and quickly. A difficulty of seven million will easily be achieved by the first couple weeks of March, as thousands of chips are sent out by Butterfly Labs and the second batches from the other manufacturers begin coming online.

Predicting exchange rate is a different monster altogether. With the Reddit adoption, in essence an acknowledgement from a large corporation that accepting Bitcoins is risk-free, the way has been paved for other major businesses to sit down with the likes of BitPay, Coinbase, WalletBit, and OKPAY, and add Bitcoin to their list of acceptable forms of payment.

It used to be that accepting Bitcoin literally meant having a Bitcoin wallet and receiving Bitcoins. Now it's obvious, almost mainstream obvious, that you can pay a third party a nominal fee to convert those Bitcoins to fiat currency and, literally overnight, expand your customer base to the global market.

Now we're at a $300,000,000 market cap. As we approach a billion dollars and beyond, Bitcoin will become even more liquid, allowing the payment processors to lower their fees and increase the pressure on thre three archaic stalwarts: PayPal, Visa, and MasterCard.

So where do we go from here? How much is global, fraud-free, peer-to-peer, open-source digital cash worth to the global economy? 300 million dollars? A billion dollars? Ten billion? At ten billion dollars, a Bitcoin is worth $476 at full dilution (21 million coins). There are several niche publicly traded technology companies with market caps in the ten billion dollar range, but we're talking about a technology, Bitcoin, that could literally revolutionize global banking. What are the odds of Bitcoin being worth 15% of ten billion within six months? I would say that outcome is quite likely, and that's all my chart is showing.

The current "spike" to $28 is the equivalent to the spike to $10 that occurred before the June 2011 bubble. Assuming this is a similar "calm before the storm" situation, I predict we'll see mid-fifties by mid to late March, followed by a consolidation in the $40 range, and then an aggressive steady climb toward $100 by the end of 2013.

Again, I can't predict the future; nobody can, but at this point I can't see why such a useful technology that has already survived three years of endless attacks unscathed, will not receive massive adoption in the very near future, at first by business, and then subsequently by consumer. Most importantly, Bitcoin is a concept that is starting to go viral, and when things go viral on the Internet, they move quickly.

 
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