The Three Stages of Bitcoin

No, they are not "denial," "anger," and "acceptance." They are "Distribution," "Application," and "Transaction." The three stages overlap, but each one dominates over a given period of time. The beginning of a stage's period of domination is in line with a change of Bitcoin creation rate.

Given the rapid drop in Bitcoin's value over the last 24 hours, my hope is to put things in perspective.

Stage 1: Distribution

- Spans from 2009 until 2017;
- Dominates from 2009 until 2013, at which point the creation rate halves;
- Represents the period of time of most rapid Bitcoin creation;
- Includes the first two creation rates (50 and 25 Bitcoins per block);
- Responsible for the creation of 78.125% of all Bitcoins (16,406,250);
- Inflationary during its period of dominance (until 2013);
- Bitcoins are created, sold, and re-sold, as value fluctuates wildly, with each cycle increasing the number of Bitcoin holders.

Stage 2: Application

- Spans from 2012 until 2025;
- Dominates from 2013 until 2021;
- Represents the period of time of most rapid Bitcoin application development;
- Includes part of the first creation rate and all of the next three;
- Covers the development of applications that provide services which are unambiguously cheaper and more efficient than similar services relying on other technologies;
- Quickly transitions from inflationary to deflationary during its period of dominance as Bitcoin applications gain marketshare.

Stage 3: Transaction

- Spans and dominates from 2021 onward;
- Represents the period of time where nearly all important applications have already been developed;
- Includes all rates of Bitcoin creation beyond the first three;
- 90% of Bitcoins are in circulation at the beginning of this stage;
- Bitcoins are exchanged for increasingly valuable goods and services;
- Bitcoins are rarely exchanged for fiat currencies;
- Pure exchanges that have not diversified their services no longer exist;
- Money transfer service providers that deal in fiat currencies no longer exist.

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